The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
IPS
14.6%6.86−2.4 pp
Draw
18.7%5.33−1.2 pp
LIV
66.7%1.50+3.6 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20260902
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Ipswich Town14.6%6.86
Draw18.7%5.33
Liverpool66.7%1.50
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw33.3%3.00
Ipswich Town or Liverpool81.3%1.23
Draw or Liverpool85.4%1.17
Draw no bet
Ipswich Town17.9%5.57
Liverpool82.1%1.22
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Ipswich Town5.3%18.80
Liverpool30.8%3.25
Clean sheet
Ipswich Town8.9%11.30
Liverpool34.3%2.92
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-228 Elo
Favours LIV. IPS 1396 against LIV 1624, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.63 net xG per match
Favours LIV. IPS -0.53, LIV +0.10 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.60 against 0.80 points per game
Favours IPS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWDD against DDDLD
Unavailable players5% home against 0% away xG missing
Favours LIV. 3 out and 2 doubtful for IPS, 7 out and 0 doubtful for LIV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours IPS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
IPS · incl. Championship
LWWDD
25 Apr – 30 Aug
LIV
DLDDD
9 May – 29 Aug
1.60Points per game0.80
9Goals for8
8Goals against10
3.39Expected goals (2 of 5)9.58
1,396Elo1,624
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): IPS 0, drawn 0, LIV 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
1.59
GTbets
62.9%
43
h2h
draw
5.00
Smarkets
20.0%
43
h2h
home
6.00
Smarkets
16.7%
43
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
5.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatusiwaMIDinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
PhilogeneMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.3% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
0.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChiesaMIDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
GomezDEFinjured0%
Muscular injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 09 · Divergence
Where the model differs from a price
Shown with the model's own record, because that is what decides how much these are worth.
h2h awaymodel 66.7% vs 1.59 (GTbets)+6.0 ppstake 2.0%medium confidence
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean