No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Spurs21.4%4.68
Draw28.7%3.48
Arsenal49.9%2.00
Double chance
Spurs or draw50.1%2.00
Spurs or Arsenal71.3%1.40
Draw or Arsenal78.6%1.27
Draw no bet
Spurs30.0%3.34
Arsenal70.0%1.43
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Spurs12.5%8.01
Arsenal31.3%3.19
Clean sheet
Spurs23.5%4.25
Arsenal42.4%2.36
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-282 Elo
Favours ARS. TOT 1477 against ARS 1759, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players18% home against 36% away xG missing
Favours TOT. 10 out and 6 doubtful for TOT, 4 out and 12 doubtful for ARS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.60 against 2.40 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWDLD against WWWLW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours TOT. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.25 net xG per match
Favours ARS. TOT +0.13, ARS +0.38 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
TOT
WWDLD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
ARS
WLWWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.60Points per game2.40
8Goals for7
5Goals against4
6.45Expected goals8.75
1,477Elo1,759
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): TOT 1, drawn 1, ARS 8. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Spurs
17.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Pedro PorroDEFinjured0%4.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 24 Oct
SávioMIDinjured0%4.6% xG
Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
BergvallMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
BentancurMIDsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
MudrykMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
RicharlisonFWDunavailable0%
not included in squad.
TosinDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
UdogieDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OdobertMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
XaviMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
and 6 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
36.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SakaMIDinjured0%24.4% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
DowmanMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 29 Nov
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HavertzFWDdoubtful75%18.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
CalafioriDEFdoubtful75%8.2% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
KonsaDEFdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaduekeMIDdoubtful50%3.6% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
RiceMIDdoubtful75%3.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Bruno G.MIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
and 6 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean