No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Nott'm Forest30.0%3.33
Draw28.6%3.50
Brighton41.4%2.41
Double chance
Nott'm Forest or draw58.6%1.71
Nott'm Forest or Brighton71.4%1.40
Draw or Brighton70.0%1.43
Draw no bet
Nott'm Forest42.0%2.38
Brighton58.0%1.72
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Nott'm Forest16.2%6.17
Brighton23.1%4.34
Clean sheet
Nott'm Forest25.4%3.94
Brighton32.2%3.10
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form0.80 against 2.40 points per game
Favours BHA. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLLLW against LWWWW
Unavailable players24% home against 10% away xG missing
Favours BHA. 3 out and 6 doubtful for NFO, 6 out and 8 doubtful for BHA; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap-89 Elo
Favours BHA. NFO 1501 against BHA 1591, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals+0.11 net xG per match
Favours NFO. NFO +1.12, BHA +1.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NFO
DLLLW
12 Sept – 23 Oct
BHA
WWWWL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
0.80Points per game2.40
4Goals for15
7Goals against2
11.38Expected goals10.09
1,501Elo1,591
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NFO 2, drawn 2, BHA 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
23.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Igor JesusFWDinjured0%8.5% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%0.6% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Gibbs-WhiteMIDdoubtful75%17.3% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
NdoyeMIDdoubtful50%15.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
N.WilliamsDEFdoubtful75%6.5% xG
Arm injury - 75% chance of playing
MilenkovićDEFdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Jair CunhaDEFdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
DominguezMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
StruijkDEFinjured0%1.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
YohannaMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
AzeezMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful75%14.0% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%11.3% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AndrésMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean