No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Newcastle53.3%1.88
Draw27.0%3.70
Sunderland19.7%5.08
Double chance
Newcastle or draw80.3%1.25
Newcastle or Sunderland73.0%1.37
Draw or Sunderland46.7%2.14
Draw no bet
Newcastle73.0%1.37
Sunderland27.0%3.71
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Newcastle32.6%3.07
Sunderland11.1%9.01
Clean sheet
Newcastle42.3%2.37
Sunderland20.8%4.82
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form1.20 against 0.20 points per game
Favours NEW. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WLLWL against DLLLL
Unavailable players12% home against 22% away xG missing
Favours NEW. 5 out and 7 doubtful for NEW, 6 out and 5 doubtful for SUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals+0.39 net xG per match
Favours NEW. NEW -0.52, SUN -0.92 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NEW. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+33 Elo
Favours NEW. NEW 1542 against SUN 1510, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NEW
WLLWL
14 Sept – 25 Oct
SUN
LLLLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.20Points per game0.20
6Goals for3
10Goals against11
6.60Expected goals7.17
1,542Elo1,510
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NEW 0, drawn 0, SUN 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
12.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.RamseyMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%0.9% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
N.GonzalezMIDinjured0%0.5% xG
Concussion - Expected back 12 Oct
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
JaouenGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
OsulaFWDdoubtful50%8.4% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
Fernandez-PardoFWDdoubtful75%5.9% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
ElangaMIDdoubtful75%4.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TouréMIDdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
DedićDEFdoubtful50%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
21.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BallardDEFinjured0%2.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
DansoDEFsuspended0%2.3% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
MundleMIDinjured0%1.3% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ReinildoDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 10 Oct
AldereteDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
BrobbeyFWDdoubtful75%26.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
IsidorFWDdoubtful50%12.7% xG
Knock - 50% chance of playing
MukieleDEFdoubtful75%6.2% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
MeunierDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
and 1 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean