No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Coventry City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Man Utd 148 · Coventry City 8
Match result
Man Utd60.7%1.65
Draw24.5%4.08
Coventry City14.8%6.76
Double chance
Man Utd or draw85.2%1.17
Man Utd or Coventry City75.5%1.32
Draw or Coventry City39.3%2.54
Draw no bet
Man Utd80.4%1.24
Coventry City19.6%5.10
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man Utd38.4%2.61
Coventry City8.3%11.99
Clean sheet
Man Utd47.4%2.11
Coventry City17.3%5.77
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap+112 Elo
Favours MUN. MUN 1588 against COV 1476, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players16% home against 25% away xG missing
Favours MUN. 6 out and 9 doubtful for MUN, 6 out and 4 doubtful for COV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form0.60 against 1.20 points per game
Favours COV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LDDDL against LLWWL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.02 net xG per match
Favours COV. MUN -0.60, COV -0.58 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MUN
LDDDL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
COV
LWWLL
13 Sept – 24 Oct
0.60Points per game1.20
3Goals for6
7Goals against10
5.86Expected goals4.95
1,588Elo1,476
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
16.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DorguMIDinjured0%5.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
ŠeškoFWDinjured0%2.7% xG
Shin injury - Unknown return date
MartinezDEFsuspended0%1.7% xG
Suspended until 22 Nov
ShawDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RashfordMIDdoubtful75%5.4% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
AmadMIDdoubtful75%5.0% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
MainooMIDdoubtful25%2.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
MountMIDdoubtful75%1.6% xG
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Coventry City
25.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AwoniyiFWDsuspended0%21.0% xG
Suspended until 19 Oct
AmendaDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
DovinGKPunavailable0%
not included in squad.
EcclesMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
WoolfendenDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
WrightFWDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ThomasDEFdoubtful50%7.2% xG
Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
OnyekaMIDdoubtful50%0.7% xG
Hand injury - 50% chance of playing
van EwijkDEFdoubtful75%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Kesler-HaydenDEFdoubtful75%
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean