No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Leeds51.4%1.95
Draw26.3%3.81
Ipswich Town22.4%4.47
Double chance
Leeds or draw77.6%1.29
Leeds or Ipswich Town73.7%1.36
Draw or Ipswich Town48.6%2.06
Draw no bet
Leeds69.7%1.44
Ipswich Town30.3%3.30
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Leeds28.4%3.52
Ipswich Town11.3%8.86
Clean sheet
Leeds36.4%2.75
Ipswich Town19.2%5.21
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.23 net xG per match
Favours LEE. LEE +0.14, IPS -1.09 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players27% home against 9% away xG missing
Favours IPS. 2 out and 8 doubtful for LEE, 2 out and 5 doubtful for IPS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap+105 Elo
Favours LEE. LEE 1516 against IPS 1411, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LEE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form1.20 against 1.40 points per game
Favours IPS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DDLDW against DLWLW
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LEE
DDLDW
14 Sept – 25 Oct
IPS
WLWLD
12 Sept – 23 Oct
1.20Points per game1.40
6Goals for8
4Goals against8
7.05Expected goals6.62
1,516Elo1,411
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
27.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
RodonDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinFWDdoubtful50%34.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
StachMIDdoubtful50%13.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
JamesMIDdoubtful50%3.1% xG
Back injury - 50% chance of playing
OkaforMIDdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
ElvediDEFdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
WilsonMIDdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
BahoyaMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
9.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FatawuMIDsuspended0%2.9% xG
Suspended until 17 Oct
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.8% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
PhilogeneMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
LukićMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
MatusiwaMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean