No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Everton38.0%2.63
Draw30.6%3.27
Fulham31.4%3.18
Double chance
Everton or draw68.6%1.46
Everton or Fulham69.4%1.44
Draw or Fulham62.0%1.61
Draw no bet
Everton54.7%1.83
Fulham45.3%2.21
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Everton23.4%4.28
Fulham19.1%5.24
Clean sheet
Everton35.0%2.85
Fulham30.7%3.25
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form1.00 against 1.60 points per game
Favours FUL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLDWD against WWLDD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours EVE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.11 net xG per match
Favours FUL. EVE +0.20, FUL +0.31 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap+8 Elo
Favours EVE. EVE 1525 against FUL 1517, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players3% home against 4% away xG missing
Favours EVE. 0 out and 7 doubtful for EVE, 2 out and 6 doubtful for FUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
EVE
LLDWD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
FUL
DDLWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.00Points per game1.60
3Goals for4
6Goals against3
8.27Expected goals7.26
1,525Elo1,517
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): EVE 3, drawn 3, FUL 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Everton
3.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ArmstrongMIDdoubtful75%4.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
BranthwaiteDEFdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
GarnerMIDdoubtful75%2.7% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GrealishMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
MykolenkoDEFdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
RöhlMIDdoubtful50%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
NørgaardMIDdoubtful50%
Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
3.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SessegnonDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
TeteDEFinjured0%
Concussion - Expected back 10 Oct
RobinsonDEFdoubtful75%2.9% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AffengruberDEFdoubtful75%1.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
LarssonMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Smith RoweMIDdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
CairneyMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean