No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Chelsea35.0%2.86
Draw30.4%3.29
Liverpool34.6%2.89
Double chance
Chelsea or draw65.4%1.53
Chelsea or Liverpool69.6%1.44
Draw or Liverpool65.0%1.54
Draw no bet
Chelsea50.2%1.99
Liverpool49.8%2.01
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Chelsea20.1%4.96
Liverpool20.0%5.01
Clean sheet
Chelsea31.1%3.21
Liverpool31.0%3.23
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players34% home against 45% away xG missing
Favours CHE. 9 out and 5 doubtful for CHE, 7 out and 8 doubtful for LIV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals-0.61 net xG per match
Favours LIV. CHE -0.39, LIV +0.21 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-78 Elo
Favours LIV. CHE 1566 against LIV 1644, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.40 against 2.00 points per game
Favours LIV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWLD against WWLWD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CHE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CHE
LWWLD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
LIV
DWLWW
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.40Points per game2.00
9Goals for5
8Goals against4
5.53Expected goals6.68
1,566Elo1,644
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CHE 2, drawn 6, LIV 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Chelsea
34.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
João PedroFWDinjured0%22.7% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
LacroixDEFinjured0%3.0% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
JamesDEFinjured0%2.5% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChavarriaDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 31 Oct
HatoDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MartinezGKPinjured0%
Head injury - Unknown return date
AnselminoDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EmeghaFWDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
GittensMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
PalmerMIDdoubtful75%18.7% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
45.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GravenberchMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
FrimpongDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
IsakFWDdoubtful25%32.9% xG
Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
SzoboszlaiMIDdoubtful50%11.5% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
WirtzMIDdoubtful75%11.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean