No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Bournemouth 147 · Hull City 8
Match result
Bournemouth49.9%2.00
Draw28.0%3.57
Hull City22.1%4.53
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw77.9%1.28
Bournemouth or Hull City72.0%1.39
Draw or Hull City50.1%2.00
Draw no bet
Bournemouth69.3%1.44
Hull City30.7%3.26
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Bournemouth30.7%3.25
Hull City12.8%7.79
Clean sheet
Bournemouth40.9%2.44
Hull City23.0%4.35
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+2.10 net xG per match
Favours BOU. BOU +1.54, HUL -0.56 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players7% home against 24% away xG missing
Favours BOU. 4 out and 3 doubtful for BOU, 9 out and 8 doubtful for HUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.40 against 0.60 points per game
Favours BOU. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLLD against DLDLD
Team rating gap+76 Elo
Favours BOU. BOU 1585 against HUL 1508, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BOU. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BOU
WWLLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
HUL
DLDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.40Points per game0.60
8Goals for6
8Goals against8
12.12Expected goals6.56
1,585Elo1,508
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
7.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ScottMIDinjured0%4.0% xG
Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Tóth.AMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
KluivertMIDdoubtful75%8.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
AdliMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Kroupi.JrMIDdoubtful75%
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
23.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GelhardtMIDinjured0%13.5% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
MendyDEFinjured0%6.8% xG
Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
CrooksMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 22 Nov
TargettDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
AnsahFWDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ChoMIDdoubtful75%9.2% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 7 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean