No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Aston Villa54.0%1.85
Draw26.7%3.74
Crystal Palace19.2%5.20
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw80.8%1.24
Aston Villa or Crystal Palace73.3%1.36
Draw or Crystal Palace46.0%2.18
Draw no bet
Aston Villa73.8%1.36
Crystal Palace26.2%3.81
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Aston Villa32.9%3.04
Crystal Palace10.7%9.32
Clean sheet
Aston Villa42.4%2.36
Crystal Palace20.2%4.94
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players10% home against 32% away xG missing
Favours AVL. 4 out and 10 doubtful for AVL, 7 out and 5 doubtful for CRY; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form2.00 against 0.80 points per game
Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWDWL against LLWDL
Team rating gap+118 Elo
Favours AVL. AVL 1611 against CRY 1494, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.36 net xG per match
Favours AVL. AVL -0.33, CRY -0.69 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours AVL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
AVL
WWDWL
12 Sept – 24 Oct
CRY
LDWLL
12 Sept – 25 Oct
2.00Points per game0.80
9Goals for5
7Goals against11
7.36Expected goals6.97
1,611Elo1,494
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): AVL 3, drawn 3, CRY 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CashDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
RuggeriDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
Wan-BissakaDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDdoubtful75%14.7% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
BarkleyMIDdoubtful75%4.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaatsenDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
PauDEFdoubtful75%2.4% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
AlyssonMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GoretzkaMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
31.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDsuspended0%17.2% xG
Suspended until 2 Dec
DisasiDEFsuspended0%2.8% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
ChilwellDEFinjured0%2.4% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
TomiyasuDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Strand LarsenFWDdoubtful75%12.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
KhalailiDEFdoubtful75%10.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
NketiahFWDdoubtful75%9.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean