No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Spurs38.5%2.60
Draw27.7%3.61
Fulham33.8%2.96
Double chance
Spurs or draw66.2%1.51
Spurs or Fulham72.3%1.38
Draw or Fulham61.5%1.63
Draw no bet
Spurs53.3%1.88
Fulham46.7%2.14
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Spurs19.9%5.02
Fulham17.2%5.83
Clean sheet
Spurs27.8%3.60
Fulham25.0%4.00
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players18% home against 4% away xG missing
Favours FUL. 10 out and 6 doubtful for TOT, 2 out and 6 doubtful for FUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours TOT. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap-40 Elo
Favours FUL. TOT 1477 against FUL 1517, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.18 net xG per match
Favours FUL. TOT +0.13, FUL +0.31 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.60 against 1.60 points per game
last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWDLD against WWLDD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
TOT
WWDLD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
FUL
DDLWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.60Points per game1.60
8Goals for4
5Goals against3
6.45Expected goals7.26
1,477Elo1,517
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): TOT 3, drawn 1, FUL 4. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Spurs
17.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Pedro PorroDEFinjured0%4.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 24 Oct
SávioMIDinjured0%4.6% xG
Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
BergvallMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
BentancurMIDsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
MudrykMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
RicharlisonFWDunavailable0%
not included in squad.
TosinDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
UdogieDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OdobertMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
XaviMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
and 6 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
3.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SessegnonDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
TeteDEFinjured0%
Concussion - Expected back 10 Oct
RobinsonDEFdoubtful75%2.9% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AffengruberDEFdoubtful75%1.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
LarssonMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Smith RoweMIDdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
CairneyMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean