No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man City62.9%1.59
Draw23.7%4.21
Leeds13.4%7.47
Double chance
Man City or draw86.6%1.15
Man City or Leeds76.3%1.31
Draw or Leeds37.1%2.69
Draw no bet
Man City82.5%1.21
Leeds17.5%5.70
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man City39.9%2.51
Leeds7.4%13.43
Clean sheet
Man City48.6%2.06
Leeds16.2%6.17
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap+225 Elo
Favours MCI. MCI 1740 against LEE 1516, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.83 net xG per match
Favours MCI. MCI +0.97, LEE +0.14 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form2.40 against 1.20 points per game
Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWWW against DDLDW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MCI. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players26% home against 27% away xG missing
Favours MCI. 2 out and 5 doubtful for MCI, 2 out and 8 doubtful for LEE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MCI
LWWWW
13 Sept – 24 Oct
LEE
WDLDD
14 Sept – 25 Oct
2.40Points per game1.20
13Goals for6
7Goals against4
11.69Expected goals7.05
1,740Elo1,516
Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MCI 6, drawn 0, LEE 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
26.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FodenMIDsuspended0%12.4% xG
Suspended until 17 Oct
SemenyoMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HaalandFWDdoubtful75%35.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
O'ReillyDEFdoubtful75%6.7% xG
Back injury - 75% chance of playing
DokuMIDdoubtful75%3.8% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%0.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
KovačićMIDdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
27.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
RodonDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinFWDdoubtful50%34.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
StachMIDdoubtful50%13.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
JamesMIDdoubtful50%3.1% xG
Back injury - 50% chance of playing
OkaforMIDdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
ElvediDEFdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
WilsonMIDdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
BahoyaMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean