No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Liverpool49.4%2.02
Draw30.5%3.28
Sunderland20.1%4.97
Double chance
Liverpool or draw79.9%1.25
Liverpool or Sunderland69.5%1.44
Draw or Sunderland50.6%1.98
Draw no bet
Liverpool71.1%1.41
Sunderland28.9%3.46
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Liverpool33.5%2.98
Sunderland12.8%7.79
Clean sheet
Liverpool47.1%2.12
Sunderland26.4%3.78
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players45% home against 22% away xG missing
Favours SUN. 7 out and 8 doubtful for LIV, 6 out and 5 doubtful for SUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form2.00 against 0.20 points per game
Favours LIV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLWD against DLLLL
Underlying expected goals+1.13 net xG per match
Favours LIV. LIV +0.21, SUN -0.92 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap+134 Elo
Favours LIV. LIV 1644 against SUN 1510, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LIV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LIV
WWLWD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
SUN
LLLLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
2.00Points per game0.20
5Goals for3
4Goals against11
6.68Expected goals7.17
1,644Elo1,510
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LIV 1, drawn 1, SUN 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
45.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GravenberchMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
FrimpongDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
IsakFWDdoubtful25%32.9% xG
Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
SzoboszlaiMIDdoubtful50%11.5% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
WirtzMIDdoubtful75%11.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
21.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BallardDEFinjured0%2.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
DansoDEFsuspended0%2.3% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
MundleMIDinjured0%1.3% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ReinildoDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 10 Oct
AldereteDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
BrobbeyFWDdoubtful75%26.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
IsidorFWDdoubtful50%12.7% xG
Knock - 50% chance of playing
MukieleDEFdoubtful75%6.2% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
MeunierDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
and 1 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean