No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Hull City 8 · Nott'm Forest 147
Match result
Hull City32.8%3.05
Draw31.8%3.15
Nott'm Forest35.4%2.83
Double chance
Hull City or draw64.6%1.55
Hull City or Nott'm Forest68.2%1.47
Draw or Nott'm Forest67.2%1.49
Draw no bet
Hull City48.1%2.08
Nott'm Forest51.9%1.93
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Hull City21.1%4.73
Nott'm Forest22.8%4.39
Clean sheet
Hull City34.4%2.91
Nott'm Forest36.0%2.78
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.68 net xG per match
Favours NFO. HUL -0.56, NFO +1.12 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours HUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form0.60 against 0.80 points per game
Favours NFO. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDLD against DLLLW
Team rating gap+7 Elo
Favours HUL. HUL 1508 against NFO 1501, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players24% home against 24% away xG missing
Favours HUL. 9 out and 8 doubtful for HUL, 3 out and 6 doubtful for NFO; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
HUL
DLDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
NFO
WLLLD
12 Sept – 23 Oct
0.60Points per game0.80
6Goals for4
8Goals against7
6.56Expected goals11.38
1,508Elo1,501
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
23.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GelhardtMIDinjured0%13.5% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
MendyDEFinjured0%6.8% xG
Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
CrooksMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 22 Nov
TargettDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
AnsahFWDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ChoMIDdoubtful75%9.2% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 7 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
23.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Igor JesusFWDinjured0%8.5% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%0.6% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Gibbs-WhiteMIDdoubtful75%17.3% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
NdoyeMIDdoubtful50%15.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
N.WilliamsDEFdoubtful75%6.5% xG
Arm injury - 75% chance of playing
MilenkovićDEFdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Jair CunhaDEFdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
DominguezMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean