No dataThis fixture is not priced yetThe model runs after each ingest. Everything else on this page is live.
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brentford25.3%3.95
Draw30.7%3.26
Arsenal44.0%2.27
Double chance
Brentford or draw56.0%1.78
Brentford or Arsenal69.3%1.44
Draw or Arsenal74.7%1.34
Draw no bet
Brentford36.5%2.74
Arsenal63.5%1.58
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brentford15.5%6.45
Arsenal28.1%3.56
Clean sheet
Brentford28.0%3.57
Arsenal40.6%2.46
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players16% home against 36% away xG missing
Favours BRE. 9 out and 4 doubtful for BRE, 4 out and 12 doubtful for ARS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap-199 Elo
Favours ARS. BRE 1559 against ARS 1759, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.20 against 2.40 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDWD against WWWLW
Underlying expected goals-0.71 net xG per match
Favours ARS. BRE -0.33, ARS +0.38 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BRE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BRE
DLDWD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
ARS
WLWWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.20Points per game2.40
9Goals for7
7Goals against4
7.12Expected goals8.75
1,559Elo1,759
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BRE 1, drawn 3, ARS 6. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
16.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
JaneltMIDsuspended0%3.7% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
CarvalhoMIDinjured0%3.0% xG
Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
YarmoliukMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 8 Nov
Van den BergDEFinjured0%1.1% xG
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDinjured0%0.9% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
HenryDEFinjured0%
Hip injury - Unknown return date
DasilvaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
FuroFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SchadeMIDdoubtful75%14.8% xG
Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
and 3 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
36.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SakaMIDinjured0%24.4% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
DowmanMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 29 Nov
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HavertzFWDdoubtful75%18.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
CalafioriDEFdoubtful75%8.2% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
KonsaDEFdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaduekeMIDdoubtful50%3.6% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
RiceMIDdoubtful75%3.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Bruno G.MIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
and 6 more
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean