No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
SUN
33.4%3.00–
Draw
30.5%3.28–
TOT
36.1%2.77–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Sunderland33.4%3.00
Draw30.5%3.28
Spurs36.1%2.77
Double chance
Sunderland or draw63.9%1.57
Sunderland or Spurs69.5%1.44
Draw or Spurs66.6%1.50
Draw no bet
Sunderland48.0%2.08
Spurs52.0%1.92
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Sunderland19.9%5.02
Spurs21.7%4.61
Clean sheet
Sunderland31.3%3.20
Spurs33.1%3.02
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.05 net xG per match
Favours TOT. SUN -0.92, TOT +0.13 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form0.20 against 1.60 points per game
Favours TOT. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLLLL against WWDLD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours SUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players22% home against 18% away xG missing
Favours TOT. 6 out and 5 doubtful for SUN, 10 out and 6 doubtful for TOT; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap+33 Elo
Favours SUN. SUN 1510 against TOT 1477, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
SUN
DLLLL
12 Sept – 25 Oct
TOT
DLDWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
0.20Points per game1.60
3Goals for8
11Goals against5
7.17Expected goals6.45
1,510Elo1,477
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): SUN 1, drawn 1, TOT 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
21.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BallardDEFinjured0%2.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
DansoDEFsuspended0%2.3% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
MundleMIDinjured0%1.3% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ReinildoDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 10 Oct
AldereteDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
BrobbeyFWDdoubtful75%26.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
IsidorFWDdoubtful50%12.7% xG
Knock - 50% chance of playing
MukieleDEFdoubtful75%6.2% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
MeunierDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
and 1 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Spurs
17.8% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Pedro PorroDEFinjured0%4.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 24 Oct
SávioMIDinjured0%4.6% xG
Muscular injury - Expected back 21 Nov
BergvallMIDinjured0%1.0% xG
Knee injury - Expected back 31 Oct
BentancurMIDsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
MudrykMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
RicharlisonFWDunavailable0%
not included in squad.
TosinDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Unknown return date
UdogieDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
OdobertMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
XaviMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
and 6 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean