No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
NFO
35.4%2.83–
Draw
30.7%3.26–
CHE
33.9%2.95–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Nott'm Forest35.4%2.83
Draw30.7%3.26
Chelsea33.9%2.95
Double chance
Nott'm Forest or draw66.1%1.51
Nott'm Forest or Chelsea69.3%1.44
Draw or Chelsea64.6%1.55
Draw no bet
Nott'm Forest51.1%1.96
Chelsea48.9%2.04
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Nott'm Forest21.1%4.74
Chelsea20.2%4.95
Clean sheet
Nott'm Forest32.6%3.06
Chelsea31.7%3.15
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.51 net xG per match
Favours NFO. NFO +1.12, CHE -0.39 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players24% home against 34% away xG missing
Favours NFO. 3 out and 6 doubtful for NFO, 9 out and 5 doubtful for CHE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form0.80 against 1.40 points per game
Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLLLW against LWWLD
Team rating gap-64 Elo
Favours CHE. NFO 1501 against CHE 1566, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NFO. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NFO
DLLLW
12 Sept – 23 Oct
CHE
DLWWL
12 Sept – 24 Oct
0.80Points per game1.40
4Goals for9
7Goals against8
11.38Expected goals5.53
1,501Elo1,566
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NFO 2, drawn 3, CHE 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
23.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Igor JesusFWDinjured0%8.5% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%0.6% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Gibbs-WhiteMIDdoubtful75%17.3% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
NdoyeMIDdoubtful50%15.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
N.WilliamsDEFdoubtful75%6.5% xG
Arm injury - 75% chance of playing
MilenkovićDEFdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Jair CunhaDEFdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
DominguezMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Chelsea
34.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
João PedroFWDinjured0%22.7% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
LacroixDEFinjured0%3.0% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
JamesDEFinjured0%2.5% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChavarriaDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 31 Oct
HatoDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MartinezGKPinjured0%
Head injury - Unknown return date
AnselminoDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EmeghaFWDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
GittensMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
PalmerMIDdoubtful75%18.7% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean