No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
MUN
40.1%2.49–
Draw
27.9%3.59–
BRE
32.1%3.12–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man Utd40.1%2.49
Draw27.9%3.59
Brentford32.1%3.12
Double chance
Man Utd or draw67.9%1.47
Man Utd or Brentford72.1%1.39
Draw or Brentford59.9%1.67
Draw no bet
Man Utd55.6%1.80
Brentford44.4%2.25
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man Utd21.0%4.75
Brentford16.4%6.09
Clean sheet
Man Utd29.2%3.43
Brentford24.5%4.07
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form0.60 against 1.20 points per game
Favours BRE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LDDDL against DLDWD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MUN. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.27 net xG per match
Favours BRE. MUN -0.60, BRE -0.33 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap+29 Elo
Favours MUN. MUN 1588 against BRE 1559, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players16% home against 16% away xG missing
Favours BRE. 6 out and 9 doubtful for MUN, 9 out and 4 doubtful for BRE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MUN
LDDDL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
BRE
DWDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
0.60Points per game1.20
3Goals for9
7Goals against7
5.86Expected goals7.12
1,588Elo1,559
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MUN 6, drawn 1, BRE 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
16.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DorguMIDinjured0%5.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
ŠeškoFWDinjured0%2.7% xG
Shin injury - Unknown return date
MartinezDEFsuspended0%1.7% xG
Suspended until 22 Nov
ShawDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RashfordMIDdoubtful75%5.4% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
AmadMIDdoubtful75%5.0% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
MainooMIDdoubtful25%2.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
MountMIDdoubtful75%1.6% xG
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
16.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
JaneltMIDsuspended0%3.7% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
CarvalhoMIDinjured0%3.0% xG
Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
YarmoliukMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 8 Nov
Van den BergDEFinjured0%1.1% xG
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDinjured0%0.9% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
HenryDEFinjured0%
Hip injury - Unknown return date
DasilvaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
FuroFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SchadeMIDdoubtful75%14.8% xG
Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
and 3 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean