No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
LEE
52.9%1.89–
Draw
28.0%3.57–
COV
19.1%5.24–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Coventry City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Leeds 72 · Coventry City 8
Match result
Leeds52.9%1.89
Draw28.0%3.56
Coventry City19.1%5.24
Double chance
Leeds or draw80.9%1.24
Leeds or Coventry City72.0%1.39
Draw or Coventry City47.1%2.12
Draw no bet
Leeds73.5%1.36
Coventry City26.5%3.77
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Leeds34.2%2.92
Coventry City11.5%8.71
Clean sheet
Leeds45.4%2.20
Coventry City22.6%4.42
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+0.72 net xG per match
Favours LEE. LEE +0.14, COV -0.58 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LEE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+40 Elo
Favours LEE. LEE 1516 against COV 1476, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players27% home against 25% away xG missing
Favours COV. 2 out and 8 doubtful for LEE, 6 out and 4 doubtful for COV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.20 against 1.20 points per game
last 5 and 5 completed matches: DDLDW against LLWWL
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LEE
DDLDW
14 Sept – 25 Oct
COV
LWWLL
13 Sept – 24 Oct
1.20Points per game1.20
6Goals for6
4Goals against10
7.05Expected goals4.95
1,516Elo1,476
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LEE 2, drawn 0, COV 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
27.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
RodonDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinFWDdoubtful50%34.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
StachMIDdoubtful50%13.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
JamesMIDdoubtful50%3.1% xG
Back injury - 50% chance of playing
OkaforMIDdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
ElvediDEFdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
WilsonMIDdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
BahoyaMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Coventry City
25.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AwoniyiFWDsuspended0%21.0% xG
Suspended until 19 Oct
AmendaDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
DovinGKPunavailable0%
not included in squad.
EcclesMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
WoolfendenDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
WrightFWDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ThomasDEFdoubtful50%7.2% xG
Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
OnyekaMIDdoubtful50%0.7% xG
Hand injury - 50% chance of playing
van EwijkDEFdoubtful75%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Kesler-HaydenDEFdoubtful75%
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean