No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
IPS
20.9%4.78–
Draw
23.7%4.22–
AVL
55.4%1.80–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Ipswich Town20.9%4.78
Draw23.7%4.22
Aston Villa55.4%1.80
Double chance
Ipswich Town or draw44.6%2.24
Ipswich Town or Aston Villa76.3%1.31
Draw or Aston Villa79.1%1.26
Draw no bet
Ipswich Town27.4%3.65
Aston Villa72.6%1.38
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Ipswich Town9.2%10.92
Aston Villa27.5%3.63
Clean sheet
Ipswich Town14.9%6.73
Aston Villa33.2%3.01
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Team rating gap-200 Elo
Favours AVL. IPS 1411 against AVL 1611, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.76 net xG per match
Favours AVL. IPS -1.09, AVL -0.33 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.40 against 2.00 points per game
Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLWLW against WWDWL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours IPS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players9% home against 10% away xG missing
Favours IPS. 2 out and 5 doubtful for IPS, 4 out and 10 doubtful for AVL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
IPS
DLWLW
12 Sept – 23 Oct
AVL
LWDWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.40Points per game2.00
8Goals for9
8Goals against7
6.62Expected goals7.36
1,411Elo1,611
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): IPS 0, drawn 2, AVL 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Ipswich Town
9.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FatawuMIDsuspended0%2.9% xG
Suspended until 17 Oct
TaylorMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
EmersonnFWDdoubtful75%21.8% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
FlorentinoMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
PhilogeneMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
LukićMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
MatusiwaMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CashDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
RuggeriDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
Wan-BissakaDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDdoubtful75%14.7% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
BarkleyMIDdoubtful75%4.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaatsenDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
PauDEFdoubtful75%2.4% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
AlyssonMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GoretzkaMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean