No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
FUL
39.2%2.55–
Draw
27.9%3.59–
BOU
32.9%3.04–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Fulham39.2%2.55
Draw27.9%3.58
Bournemouth32.9%3.04
Double chance
Fulham or draw67.1%1.49
Fulham or Bournemouth72.1%1.39
Draw or Bournemouth60.8%1.65
Draw no bet
Fulham54.4%1.84
Bournemouth45.6%2.19
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Fulham20.7%4.82
Bournemouth17.1%5.86
Clean sheet
Fulham28.9%3.46
Bournemouth25.2%3.96
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.23 net xG per match
Favours BOU. FUL +0.31, BOU +1.54 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-68 Elo
Favours BOU. FUL 1517 against BOU 1585, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours FUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Unavailable players4% home against 7% away xG missing
Favours FUL. 2 out and 6 doubtful for FUL, 4 out and 3 doubtful for BOU; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.60 against 1.40 points per game
Favours FUL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLDD against WWLLD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
FUL
WWLDD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
BOU
DLLWW
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.60Points per game1.40
4Goals for8
3Goals against8
7.26Expected goals12.12
1,517Elo1,585
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): FUL 1, drawn 2, BOU 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
3.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SessegnonDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
TeteDEFinjured0%
Concussion - Expected back 10 Oct
RobinsonDEFdoubtful75%2.9% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AffengruberDEFdoubtful75%1.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
LarssonMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Smith RoweMIDdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
CairneyMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
7.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ScottMIDinjured0%4.0% xG
Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Tóth.AMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
KluivertMIDdoubtful75%8.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
AdliMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Kroupi.JrMIDdoubtful75%
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean