No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
EVE
33.2%3.01–
Draw
31.8%3.14–
LIV
34.9%2.86–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Everton33.2%3.01
Draw31.8%3.14
Liverpool34.9%2.86
Double chance
Everton or draw65.1%1.54
Everton or Liverpool68.2%1.47
Draw or Liverpool66.8%1.50
Draw no bet
Everton48.8%2.05
Liverpool51.2%1.95
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Everton20.9%4.79
Liverpool22.1%4.52
Clean sheet
Everton34.0%2.94
Liverpool35.2%2.84
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players3% home against 45% away xG missing
Favours EVE. 0 out and 7 doubtful for EVE, 7 out and 8 doubtful for LIV; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form1.00 against 2.00 points per game
Favours LIV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLDWD against WWLWD
Team rating gap-119 Elo
Favours LIV. EVE 1525 against LIV 1644, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours EVE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Underlying expected goals-0.01 net xG per match
Favours LIV. EVE +0.20, LIV +0.21 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
EVE
LLDWD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
LIV
DWLWW
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.00Points per game2.00
3Goals for5
6Goals against4
8.27Expected goals6.68
1,525Elo1,644
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): EVE 1, drawn 2, LIV 7. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Everton
3.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ArmstrongMIDdoubtful75%4.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
BranthwaiteDEFdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
GarnerMIDdoubtful75%2.7% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GrealishMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
MykolenkoDEFdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
RöhlMIDdoubtful50%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
NørgaardMIDdoubtful50%
Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
45.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GravenberchMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
FrimpongDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
IsakFWDdoubtful25%32.9% xG
Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
SzoboszlaiMIDdoubtful50%11.5% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
WirtzMIDdoubtful75%11.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean