No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
CRY
40.5%2.47–
Draw
31.8%3.14–
HUL
27.6%3.62–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Crystal Palace 148 · Hull City 8
Match result
Crystal Palace40.5%2.47
Draw31.8%3.14
Hull City27.6%3.62
Double chance
Crystal Palace or draw72.4%1.38
Crystal Palace or Hull City68.2%1.47
Draw or Hull City59.5%1.68
Draw no bet
Crystal Palace59.5%1.68
Hull City40.5%2.47
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Crystal Palace26.9%3.72
Hull City18.0%5.57
Clean sheet
Crystal Palace40.6%2.46
Hull City31.7%3.15
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players32% home against 24% away xG missing
Favours HUL. 7 out and 5 doubtful for CRY, 9 out and 8 doubtful for HUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CRY. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form0.80 against 0.60 points per game
Favours CRY. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWDL against DLDLD
Underlying expected goals-0.13 net xG per match
Favours HUL. CRY -0.69, HUL -0.56 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-15 Elo
Favours HUL. CRY 1494 against HUL 1508, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CRY
LLWDL
12 Sept – 25 Oct
HUL
DLDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
0.80Points per game0.60
5Goals for6
11Goals against8
6.97Expected goals6.56
1,494Elo1,508
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
31.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDsuspended0%17.2% xG
Suspended until 2 Dec
DisasiDEFsuspended0%2.8% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
ChilwellDEFinjured0%2.4% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
TomiyasuDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Strand LarsenFWDdoubtful75%12.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
KhalailiDEFdoubtful75%10.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
NketiahFWDdoubtful75%9.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
23.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GelhardtMIDinjured0%13.5% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
MendyDEFinjured0%6.8% xG
Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
CrooksMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 22 Nov
TargettDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
AnsahFWDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ChoMIDdoubtful75%9.2% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 7 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean