No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
BHA
44.5%2.25–
Draw
25.4%3.94–
NEW
30.1%3.32–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brighton44.5%2.25
Draw25.4%3.94
Newcastle30.1%3.32
Double chance
Brighton or draw69.9%1.43
Brighton or Newcastle74.6%1.34
Draw or Newcastle55.5%1.80
Draw no bet
Brighton59.7%1.68
Newcastle40.3%2.48
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brighton20.3%4.92
Newcastle13.0%7.69
Clean sheet
Brighton26.0%3.85
Newcastle18.7%5.35
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals+1.53 net xG per match
Favours BHA. BHA +1.00, NEW -0.52 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form2.40 against 1.20 points per game
Favours BHA. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWWW against WLLWL
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BHA. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+49 Elo
Favours BHA. BHA 1591 against NEW 1542, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Unavailable players10% home against 12% away xG missing
Favours BHA. 6 out and 8 doubtful for BHA, 5 out and 7 doubtful for NEW; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BHA
LWWWW
13 Sept – 25 Oct
NEW
LWLLW
14 Sept – 25 Oct
2.40Points per game1.20
15Goals for6
2Goals against10
10.09Expected goals6.60
1,591Elo1,542
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BHA 3, drawn 4, NEW 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
StruijkDEFinjured0%1.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
YohannaMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
AzeezMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful75%14.0% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%11.3% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AndrésMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
12.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.RamseyMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%0.9% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
N.GonzalezMIDinjured0%0.5% xG
Concussion - Expected back 12 Oct
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
JaouenGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
OsulaFWDdoubtful50%8.4% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
Fernandez-PardoFWDdoubtful75%5.9% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
ElangaMIDdoubtful75%4.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TouréMIDdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
DedićDEFdoubtful50%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean