No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
ARS
38.5%2.60–
Draw
32.5%3.07–
MCI
29.0%3.45–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Arsenal38.5%2.60
Draw32.5%3.07
Man City29.0%3.45
Double chance
Arsenal or draw71.0%1.41
Arsenal or Man City67.5%1.48
Draw or Man City61.5%1.63
Draw no bet
Arsenal57.0%1.75
Man City43.0%2.33
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Arsenal25.4%3.94
Man City18.8%5.33
Clean sheet
Arsenal39.7%2.52
Man City33.1%3.02
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players36% home against 26% away xG missing
Favours MCI. 4 out and 12 doubtful for ARS, 2 out and 5 doubtful for MCI; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals-0.59 net xG per match
Favours MCI. ARS +0.38, MCI +0.97 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours ARS. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+18 Elo
Favours ARS. ARS 1759 against MCI 1740, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form2.40 against 2.40 points per game
last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWWLW against LWWWW
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
ARS
WWWLW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
MCI
WWWWL
13 Sept – 24 Oct
2.40Points per game2.40
7Goals for13
4Goals against7
8.75Expected goals11.69
1,759Elo1,740
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): ARS 2, drawn 3, MCI 5. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
36.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SakaMIDinjured0%24.4% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
DowmanMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 29 Nov
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HavertzFWDdoubtful75%18.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
CalafioriDEFdoubtful75%8.2% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
KonsaDEFdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaduekeMIDdoubtful50%3.6% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
RiceMIDdoubtful75%3.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Bruno G.MIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
and 6 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
26.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FodenMIDsuspended0%12.4% xG
Suspended until 17 Oct
SemenyoMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HaalandFWDdoubtful75%35.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
O'ReillyDEFdoubtful75%6.7% xG
Back injury - 75% chance of playing
DokuMIDdoubtful75%3.8% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%0.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
KovačićMIDdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean