No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
NEW
27.3%3.66–
Draw
29.9%3.34–
ARS
42.8%2.34–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Newcastle27.3%3.66
Draw29.9%3.34
Arsenal42.8%2.34
Double chance
Newcastle or draw57.2%1.75
Newcastle or Arsenal70.1%1.43
Draw or Arsenal72.7%1.38
Draw no bet
Newcastle39.0%2.56
Arsenal61.0%1.64
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Newcastle15.9%6.28
Arsenal25.9%3.86
Clean sheet
Newcastle27.0%3.70
Arsenal37.0%2.70
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players12% home against 36% away xG missing
Favours NEW. 5 out and 7 doubtful for NEW, 4 out and 12 doubtful for ARS; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap-216 Elo
Favours ARS. NEW 1542 against ARS 1759, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals-0.90 net xG per match
Favours ARS. NEW -0.52, ARS +0.38 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.20 against 2.40 points per game
Favours ARS. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WLLWL against WWWLW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours NEW. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
NEW
WLLWL
14 Sept – 25 Oct
ARS
WLWWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.20Points per game2.40
6Goals for7
10Goals against4
6.60Expected goals8.75
1,542Elo1,759
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): NEW 3, drawn 1, ARS 6. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Newcastle
12.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
J.RamseyMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
BurnDEFinjured0%0.9% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 12 Oct
N.GonzalezMIDinjured0%0.5% xG
Concussion - Expected back 12 Oct
LivramentoDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
JaouenGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
OsulaFWDdoubtful50%8.4% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
Fernandez-PardoFWDdoubtful75%5.9% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
ElangaMIDdoubtful75%4.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
TouréMIDdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
DedićDEFdoubtful50%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Arsenal
36.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SakaMIDinjured0%24.4% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
DowmanMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 29 Nov
NelsonMIDunavailable0%
has departed the club as a free agent.
SalibaDEFinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
HavertzFWDdoubtful75%18.6% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
CalafioriDEFdoubtful75%8.2% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
KonsaDEFdoubtful75%4.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaduekeMIDdoubtful50%3.6% xG
Ankle injury - 50% chance of playing
RiceMIDdoubtful75%3.0% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Bruno G.MIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
and 6 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean