No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
MCI
58.8%1.70–
Draw
24.6%4.07–
FUL
16.6%6.02–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Man City58.8%1.70
Draw24.6%4.07
Fulham16.6%6.02
Double chance
Man City or draw83.4%1.20
Man City or Fulham75.4%1.33
Draw or Fulham41.2%2.43
Draw no bet
Man City78.0%1.28
Fulham22.0%4.54
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Man City35.0%2.86
Fulham8.7%11.45
Clean sheet
Man City43.0%2.32
Fulham16.8%5.95
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players26% home against 4% away xG missing
Favours FUL. 2 out and 5 doubtful for MCI, 2 out and 6 doubtful for FUL; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap+223 Elo
Favours MCI. MCI 1740 against FUL 1517, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.66 net xG per match
Favours MCI. MCI +0.97, FUL +0.31 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form2.40 against 1.60 points per game
Favours MCI. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWWW against WWLDD
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours MCI. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
MCI
LWWWW
13 Sept – 24 Oct
FUL
DDLWW
12 Sept – 24 Oct
2.40Points per game1.60
13Goals for4
7Goals against3
11.69Expected goals7.26
1,740Elo1,517
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): MCI 8, drawn 0, FUL 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Man City
26.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
FodenMIDsuspended0%12.4% xG
Suspended until 17 Oct
SemenyoMIDinjured0%1.9% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HaalandFWDdoubtful75%35.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
O'ReillyDEFdoubtful75%6.7% xG
Back injury - 75% chance of playing
DokuMIDdoubtful75%3.8% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Matheus N.DEFdoubtful75%0.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
KovačićMIDdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Fulham
3.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
SessegnonDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 7 Nov
TeteDEFinjured0%
Concussion - Expected back 10 Oct
RobinsonDEFdoubtful75%2.9% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AffengruberDEFdoubtful75%1.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
LarssonMIDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
Smith RoweMIDdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Knock - 75% chance of playing
CairneyMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
De FougerollesDEFdoubtful75%
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean