The bar is the model's probability; the caret on the same scale is the market's, with the margin removed. The distance between them is the disagreement.
OutcomeModel fill · market caretProbFairΔ mkt
LIV
28.6%3.49−19.9 pp
Draw
37.1%2.69+20.6 pp
MUN
34.2%2.92−0.7 pp
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Liverpool28.6%3.49
Draw37.1%2.69
Man Utd34.2%2.92
Double chance
Liverpool or draw65.8%1.52
Liverpool or Man Utd62.9%1.59
Draw or Man Utd71.4%1.40
Draw no bet
Liverpool45.6%2.19
Man Utd54.4%1.84
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Liverpool20.8%4.82
Man Utd24.8%4.04
Clean sheet
Liverpool41.2%2.43
Man Utd45.2%2.21
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players45% home against 16% away xG missing
Favours MUN. 7 out and 8 doubtful for LIV, 6 out and 9 doubtful for MUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Recent form2.00 against 0.60 points per game
Favours LIV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLWD against LDDDL
Underlying expected goals+0.81 net xG per match
Favours LIV. LIV +0.21, MUN -0.60 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours LIV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+56 Elo
Favours LIV. LIV 1644 against MUN 1588, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
LIV
WWLWD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
MUN
LDDDL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
2.00Points per game0.60
5Goals for3
4Goals against7
6.68Expected goals5.86
1,644Elo1,588
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): LIV 4, drawn 3, MUN 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
Real bookmaker prices, collected from published market data.
Market
Selection
Best
Book
Implied
N
h2h
away
4.33
Betfred (UK)
23.1%
19
h2h
draw
4.11
1xBet
24.3%
19
h2h
home
1.85
1xBet
54.1%
19
Ch 06 · Availability
Liverpool
45.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GravenberchMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
FrimpongDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
BradleyDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
DannsFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EkitikéFWDinjured0%
Achilles injury - Unknown return date
JarosGKPinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
LeoniDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
IsakFWDdoubtful25%32.9% xG
Thigh injury - 25% chance of playing
SzoboszlaiMIDdoubtful50%11.5% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
WirtzMIDdoubtful75%11.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Man Utd
16.4% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
DorguMIDinjured0%5.4% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
ŠeškoFWDinjured0%2.7% xG
Shin injury - Unknown return date
MartinezDEFsuspended0%1.7% xG
Suspended until 22 Nov
ShawDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
HeatonGKPinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
UgarteMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
RashfordMIDdoubtful75%5.4% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
AmadMIDdoubtful75%5.0% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
MainooMIDdoubtful25%2.1% xG
Unspecified injury - 25% chance of playing
MountMIDdoubtful75%1.6% xG
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
and 5 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean