No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
HUL
27.9%3.59–
Draw
29.4%3.40–
BHA
42.7%2.34–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Hull City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Hull City 8 · Brighton 148
Match result
Hull City27.9%3.59
Draw29.4%3.40
Brighton42.7%2.34
Double chance
Hull City or draw57.3%1.75
Hull City or Brighton70.6%1.42
Draw or Brighton72.1%1.39
Draw no bet
Hull City39.5%2.53
Brighton60.5%1.65
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Hull City16.3%6.15
Brighton25.7%3.90
Clean sheet
Hull City26.8%3.73
Brighton36.2%2.76
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-1.56 net xG per match
Favours BHA. HUL -0.56, BHA +1.00 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form0.60 against 2.40 points per game
Favours BHA. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDLD against LWWWW
Unavailable players24% home against 10% away xG missing
Favours BHA. 9 out and 8 doubtful for HUL, 6 out and 8 doubtful for BHA; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap-82 Elo
Favours BHA. HUL 1508 against BHA 1591, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours HUL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
HUL
DLDLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
BHA
WWWWL
13 Sept – 25 Oct
0.60Points per game2.40
6Goals for15
8Goals against2
6.56Expected goals10.09
1,508Elo1,591
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Hull City
23.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
GelhardtMIDinjured0%13.5% xG
Ankle injury - Expected back 5 Sep
MendyDEFinjured0%6.8% xG
Groin injury - Expected back 31 Oct
CrooksMIDsuspended0%
Suspended until 22 Nov
TargettDEFinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
AnsahFWDinjured0%
Back injury - Unknown return date
GyabiMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
HughesDEFinjured0%
Groin injury - Unknown return date
MatazoMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ZambranoMIDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ChoMIDdoubtful75%9.2% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 7 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Brighton
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
StruijkDEFinjured0%1.8% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
YohannaMIDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Expected back 22 Nov
AzeezMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 8 Nov
FergusonFWDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
MitomaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 22 Nov
TzimasFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
HinshelwoodMIDdoubtful75%14.0% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AyariMIDdoubtful75%11.3% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
AndrésMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Hip injury - 75% chance of playing
GeorginioFWDdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean