No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
COV
26.2%3.82–
Draw
31.2%3.20–
CRY
42.6%2.35–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Thin sample
Coventry City has only 8 completed matches in the training window, so its fitted strength is imprecise. Treat the long prices in this book as arithmetic rather than information: a real bookmaker would quote a much shorter price on the outsider.
Matches behind each fit: Coventry City 8 · Crystal Palace 148
Match result
Coventry City26.2%3.82
Draw31.2%3.20
Crystal Palace42.6%2.35
Double chance
Coventry City or draw57.4%1.74
Coventry City or Crystal Palace68.8%1.45
Draw or Crystal Palace73.8%1.35
Draw no bet
Coventry City38.0%2.63
Crystal Palace62.0%1.61
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Coventry City16.5%6.04
Crystal Palace27.8%3.59
Clean sheet
Coventry City29.7%3.37
Crystal Palace41.0%2.44
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players25% home against 32% away xG missing
Favours COV. 6 out and 4 doubtful for COV, 7 out and 5 doubtful for CRY; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours COV. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Recent form1.20 against 0.80 points per game
Favours COV. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LLWWL against LLWDL
Underlying expected goals+0.11 net xG per match
Favours COV. COV -0.58, CRY -0.69 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap-18 Elo
Favours CRY. COV 1476 against CRY 1494, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
COV
LLWWL
13 Sept – 24 Oct
CRY
LDWLL
12 Sept – 25 Oct
1.20Points per game0.80
6Goals for5
10Goals against11
4.95Expected goals6.97
1,476Elo1,494
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Coventry City
25.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
AwoniyiFWDsuspended0%21.0% xG
Suspended until 19 Oct
AmendaDEFinjured0%0.2% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
DovinGKPunavailable0%
not included in squad.
EcclesMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
WoolfendenDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
WrightFWDinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
ThomasDEFdoubtful50%7.2% xG
Calf injury - 50% chance of playing
OnyekaMIDdoubtful50%0.7% xG
Hand injury - 50% chance of playing
van EwijkDEFdoubtful75%0.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Kesler-HaydenDEFdoubtful75%
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Crystal Palace
31.5% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
MatetaFWDsuspended0%17.2% xG
Suspended until 2 Dec
DisasiDEFsuspended0%2.8% xG
Suspended until 25 Oct
ChilwellDEFinjured0%2.4% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
Chadi RiadDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SarrMIDinjured0%
Groin injury - Expected back 8 Nov
TomiyasuDEFinjured0%
Calf injury - Expected back 8 Nov
UcheFWDunavailable0%
has returned to Getafe CF
Strand LarsenFWDdoubtful75%12.4% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
KhalailiDEFdoubtful75%10.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
NketiahFWDdoubtful75%9.9% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
and 2 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean