No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
CHE
45.5%2.20–
Draw
29.4%3.40–
LEE
25.1%3.98–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Chelsea45.5%2.20
Draw29.4%3.40
Leeds25.1%3.98
Double chance
Chelsea or draw74.9%1.33
Chelsea or Leeds70.6%1.42
Draw or Leeds54.5%1.83
Draw no bet
Chelsea64.4%1.55
Leeds35.6%2.81
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Chelsea27.5%3.63
Leeds14.5%6.92
Clean sheet
Chelsea38.4%2.60
Leeds25.4%3.94
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Underlying expected goals-0.54 net xG per match
Favours LEE. CHE -0.39, LEE +0.14 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Unavailable players34% home against 27% away xG missing
Favours LEE. 9 out and 5 doubtful for CHE, 2 out and 8 doubtful for LEE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours CHE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+50 Elo
Favours CHE. CHE 1566 against LEE 1516, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.40 against 1.20 points per game
Favours CHE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: LWWLD against DDLDW
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
CHE
LWWLD
12 Sept – 24 Oct
LEE
WDLDD
14 Sept – 25 Oct
1.40Points per game1.20
9Goals for6
8Goals against4
5.53Expected goals7.05
1,566Elo1,516
Head to head over 6 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): CHE 3, drawn 1, LEE 2. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Chelsea
34.3% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
João PedroFWDinjured0%22.7% xG
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
LacroixDEFinjured0%3.0% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
JamesDEFinjured0%2.5% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ChavarriaDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 31 Oct
HatoDEFinjured0%0.1% xG
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MartinezGKPinjured0%
Head injury - Unknown return date
AnselminoDEFinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
EmeghaFWDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
GittensMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
PalmerMIDdoubtful75%18.7% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Leeds
27.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
RodonDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Mateo JosephFWDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Calvert-LewinFWDdoubtful50%34.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
StachMIDdoubtful50%13.1% xG
Foot injury - 50% chance of playing
JamesMIDdoubtful50%3.1% xG
Back injury - 50% chance of playing
OkaforMIDdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
ElvediDEFdoubtful75%2.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
WilsonMIDdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Thigh injury - 75% chance of playing
BahoyaMIDdoubtful75%0.2% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
GruevMIDdoubtful25%
Knee injury - 25% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean