No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
BRE
43.8%2.28–
Draw
29.3%3.42–
EVE
26.9%3.71–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Brentford43.8%2.28
Draw29.3%3.42
Everton26.9%3.71
Double chance
Brentford or draw73.1%1.37
Brentford or Everton70.7%1.41
Draw or Everton56.2%1.78
Draw no bet
Brentford61.9%1.61
Everton38.1%2.63
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Brentford26.3%3.80
Everton15.5%6.45
Clean sheet
Brentford36.8%2.72
Everton26.0%3.85
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players16% home against 3% away xG missing
Favours EVE. 9 out and 4 doubtful for BRE, 0 out and 7 doubtful for EVE; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals-0.53 net xG per match
Favours EVE. BRE -0.33, EVE +0.20 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BRE. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Team rating gap+35 Elo
Favours BRE. BRE 1559 against EVE 1525, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Recent form1.20 against 1.00 points per game
Favours BRE. last 5 and 5 completed matches: DLDWD against LLDWD
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BRE
DLDWD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
EVE
DWDLL
12 Sept – 24 Oct
1.20Points per game1.00
9Goals for3
7Goals against6
7.12Expected goals8.27
1,559Elo1,525
Head to head over 10 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BRE 3, drawn 4, EVE 3. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Brentford
16.2% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
JaneltMIDsuspended0%3.7% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
CarvalhoMIDinjured0%3.0% xG
Knock - Expected back 23 Nov
YarmoliukMIDsuspended0%1.3% xG
Suspended until 8 Nov
Van den BergDEFinjured0%1.1% xG
Groin injury - Unknown return date
JensenMIDinjured0%0.9% xG
Unspecified injury - Expected back 10 Oct
HenryDEFinjured0%
Hip injury - Unknown return date
DasilvaMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
FuroFWDinjured0%
Unspecified injury - Unknown return date
MilamboMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
SchadeMIDdoubtful75%14.8% xG
Shoulder injury - 75% chance of playing
and 3 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Everton
3.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ArmstrongMIDdoubtful75%4.5% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
BranthwaiteDEFdoubtful75%2.8% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
GarnerMIDdoubtful75%2.7% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GrealishMIDdoubtful75%1.1% xG
Illness - 75% chance of playing
MykolenkoDEFdoubtful75%0.4% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
RöhlMIDdoubtful50%0.3% xG
Unspecified injury - 50% chance of playing
NørgaardMIDdoubtful50%
Groin injury - 50% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean