No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
BOU
46.6%2.15–
Draw
28.2%3.54–
NFO
25.2%3.96–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Bournemouth46.6%2.15
Draw28.2%3.54
Nott'm Forest25.2%3.96
Double chance
Bournemouth or draw74.8%1.34
Bournemouth or Nott'm Forest71.8%1.39
Draw or Nott'm Forest53.4%1.87
Draw no bet
Bournemouth64.9%1.54
Nott'm Forest35.1%2.85
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Bournemouth27.1%3.69
Nott'm Forest13.9%7.19
Clean sheet
Bournemouth36.6%2.73
Nott'm Forest23.4%4.27
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Unavailable players7% home against 24% away xG missing
Favours BOU. 4 out and 3 doubtful for BOU, 3 out and 6 doubtful for NFO; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Team rating gap+83 Elo
Favours BOU. BOU 1585 against NFO 1501, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Underlying expected goals+0.43 net xG per match
Favours BOU. BOU +1.54, NFO +1.12 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Recent form1.40 against 0.80 points per game
Favours BOU. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWLLD against DLLLW
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours BOU. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
BOU
WWLLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
NFO
WLLLD
12 Sept – 23 Oct
1.40Points per game0.80
8Goals for4
8Goals against7
12.12Expected goals11.38
1,585Elo1,501
Head to head over 8 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): BOU 4, drawn 4, NFO 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Bournemouth
7.0% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
ScottMIDinjured0%4.0% xG
Thigh injury - Expected back 21 Nov
Tóth.AMIDinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
J.AraujoDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Unknown return date
MilosavljevićDEFinjured0%
Thigh injury - Expected back 31 Oct
KluivertMIDdoubtful75%8.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
AdliMIDdoubtful75%3.1% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
Kroupi.JrMIDdoubtful75%
Foot injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 06 · Availability
Nott'm Forest
23.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
Igor JesusFWDinjured0%8.5% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
I.SangaréMIDinjured0%0.6% xG
Calf injury - Unknown return date
SavonaDEFinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
Gibbs-WhiteMIDdoubtful75%17.3% xG
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
NdoyeMIDdoubtful50%15.9% xG
Hamstring injury - 50% chance of playing
N.WilliamsDEFdoubtful75%6.5% xG
Arm injury - 75% chance of playing
MilenkovićDEFdoubtful75%1.4% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
Jair CunhaDEFdoubtful75%1.2% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
DominguezMIDdoubtful75%
Muscular injury - 75% chance of playing
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean