No bookmaker prices are held for this fixture, so there is no caret to compare against. Fair price is 1 / probability with no margin, and is not a price anyone is offering.
OutcomeModel probabilityProbFairΔ
AVL
52.7%1.90–
Draw
27.8%3.60–
SUN
19.5%5.12–
Ch 02 · Book
27 markets
dixon_coles xi001-20261102
Model fair prices, computed as 1 / probability from a Dixon-Coles score matrix. No bookmaker margin is included, and no bookmaker is quoting these. A real price will be shorter than every number here.
Match result
Aston Villa52.7%1.90
Draw27.8%3.60
Sunderland19.5%5.12
Double chance
Aston Villa or draw80.5%1.24
Aston Villa or Sunderland72.2%1.39
Draw or Sunderland47.3%2.11
Draw no bet
Aston Villa73.0%1.37
Sunderland27.0%3.70
A draw returns the stake, so these prices exclude it.
Win to nil
Aston Villa33.5%2.99
Sunderland11.5%8.67
Clean sheet
Aston Villa44.2%2.26
Sunderland22.2%4.50
Ch 03 · Reasoning
What is driving this
computed, not generated
Computed arithmetic, not generated text. Each driver is a stored quantity: the Elo difference replayed from results, points per game over the last five matches, rolling expected goals, and each absent player's share of team expected goals.
Recent form2.00 against 0.20 points per game
Favours AVL. last 5 and 5 completed matches: WWDWL against DLLLL
Unavailable players10% home against 22% away xG missing
Favours AVL. 4 out and 10 doubtful for AVL, 6 out and 5 doubtful for SUN; measured as the share of recent expected goals those players contributed
Underlying expected goals+0.59 net xG per match
Favours AVL. AVL -0.33, SUN -0.92 across the form window — results are noisier than the chances behind them
Team rating gap+101 Elo
Favours AVL. AVL 1611 against SUN 1510, computed from stored results; an Elo-driven model scores RPS around 0.2015 on this league against roughly 0.194 for de-vigged closing odds
Home advantage+60 Elo equivalent
Favours AVL. the football default is around 100 Elo points, but Premier League home advantage fell during the crowdless 2020/21 season and settled lower afterwards, so the ratings carry a smaller term
Ch 04 · Comparison
Both sides
AVL
WWDWL
12 Sept – 24 Oct
SUN
LLLLD
12 Sept – 25 Oct
2.00Points per game0.20
9Goals for3
7Goals against11
7.36Expected goals7.17
1,611Elo1,510
Head to head over 2 meetings in the seasons held (Premier League from 2021-22, Championship from 2024-25): AVL 1, drawn 1, SUN 0. Cup ties and earlier seasons are not included, so a full-history site will show more.
Ch 05 · Market
Bookmaker prices
No bookmaker prices held for this fixture. Every price shown is the model's own fair price, meaning 1 / probability with no margin. Nobody is offering these.
Nothing held. football-data.co.uk publishes weekend Premier League prices on Friday afternoon, and The Odds API needs a key. Historical fixtures already carry closing odds, so the comparison works there.
Ch 06 · Availability
Aston Villa
9.6% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
CashDEFsuspended0%1.9% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
RuggeriDEFinjured0%0.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Expected back 2 Jan
Wan-BissakaDEFinjured0%
Hamstring injury - Expected back 21 Nov
OnanaMIDinjured0%
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ManzambiMIDdoubtful75%14.7% xG
Calf injury - 75% chance of playing
BarkleyMIDdoubtful75%4.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
MaatsenDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Ankle injury - 75% chance of playing
PauDEFdoubtful75%2.4% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
AlyssonMIDdoubtful75%1.8% xG
Unspecified injury - 75% chance of playing
GoretzkaMIDdoubtful75%1.7% xG
Knee injury - 75% chance of playing
and 4 more
Ch 06 · Availability
Sunderland
21.7% xG out
Share of attacking output is what moves the number, so it is shown rather than implied.
BallardDEFinjured0%2.3% xG
Hamstring injury - Unknown return date
DansoDEFsuspended0%2.3% xG
Suspended until 31 Oct
MundleMIDinjured0%1.3% xG
Knee injury - Unknown return date
ReinildoDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 10 Oct
AldereteDEFsuspended0%0.2% xG
Suspended until 21 Nov
AdingraMIDinjured0%
Ankle injury - Unknown return date
BrobbeyFWDdoubtful75%26.1% xG
Hamstring injury - 75% chance of playing
IsidorFWDdoubtful50%12.7% xG
Knock - 50% chance of playing
MukieleDEFdoubtful75%6.2% xG
Concussion - 75% chance of playing
MeunierDEFdoubtful75%3.7% xG
Groin injury - 75% chance of playing
and 1 more
Ch 07 · Simulation
Re-price without a player
Removing a player scales that side's expected goals by their share of recent attacking output, then rebuilds the score matrix. Every market moves together.
Ch 08 · Briefing
Written summary
Nothing written for this fixture yet. Briefings are generated twice a day for fixtures inside the next eight days, and rewritten only when a probability or a team-news item actually moves. The numbers above do not wait on it.
Ch 10 · Calibration
How this model actually scores
Dixon-Coles bivariate Poisson fitted to Premier League results with exponential time decay. Statistical model, no language model involved.
loses to closing market2,281 out-of-sample fixtures
Metric
Model
Market
Δ
Ranked probability score
0.2047
0.1965
+0.0082
Log loss
0.9882
0.9623
+0.0259
Brier
0.5883
0.5711
+0.0172
Accuracy
52.5%
54.8%
−2.3 pp
Lower is better for the first three. These probabilities are for reading a fixture, not for expecting profit against closing prices. What these numbers mean